XRP Price Analysis: Is Ripple Gearing Up for a Major Breakout in 2025? Chart Patterns Show $12 Incoming

As of May 5, 2025, XRP is trading around $2.17, reflecting a 5% decline over the past week due to limited market-moving news. However, both technical indicators and significant whale activity suggest that Ripple could be on the brink of a powerful rally in the coming months.

Elliott Wave Patterns Hint at a Bullish Surge

According to Elliott Wave analysis, XRP appears to have completed a corrective phase between $2.05 and $1.65. This setup typically precedes a third wave, a historically strong upward movement in technical charting terms.

Crypto analyst EWCycles projects that XRP could hit $12 between 2025 and 2026, which would represent an explosive 2,900% surge from current levels. That’s a 5x to 6x increase, something that could significantly shift market sentiment if higher highs and higher lows continue to form in an emerging ascending channel.

Whale Activity Signals Growing Confidence

On-chain data reveals notable accumulation by XRP whales in the last month. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP scooped up 190 million tokens, while those with 10 million to 100 million XRP added 440 million tokens. Historically, whales tend to accumulate at lower prices in anticipation of major price moves.

This trend supports the bullish Elliott Wave outlook and indicates that large investors may be betting on XRP's long-term breakout potential.

However, some caution is warranted. Santiment data shows a drop in large-value whale transactions ($100K+ and $1M+), which could indicate a temporary cooling in enthusiasm.

Funding Rates and Short-Term Signals

Despite that, XRP’s aggregate funding rates have turned positive since May 1, following two days of negative readings to close April. This shift is typically bullish, suggesting that derivative markets are pricing in future gains.

On the 4-hour chart, XRP is approaching the upper resistance of a falling wedge pattern, a formation that often precedes breakouts. The RSI currently stands at 43, and a rise above 50 could confirm growing buyer momentum.

If a breakout occurs, XRP could quickly climb 7% to $2.36, with a further push toward $2.59 possible. However, if the token loses support at $2.13, the next downside target could be $1.96.

Daily Chart Outlook: Support for a Bullish Move

Zooming out to the daily timeframe, XRP trades roughly 15% below its $2.50 resistance, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its high of $3.40 to the low of $1.61.

Bullish indicators remain in play. The daily RSI sits above 54, showing moderate strength, and the MACD continues to print green histogram bars, reinforcing potential upside momentum. The $3.00 level remains a key resistance to watch throughout May 2025.

XRP Price

Regulatory Watch: SEC Appeal and ETF Timeline

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC continues to influence market dynamics. The appeal deadline has been extended to June 15, 2025, while a decision on Franklin Templeton’s proposed XRP ETF has been postponed to June 17, 2025, just two days later.

Legal expert Bill Morgan speculated the timing may be “strategically planned,” boosting optimism for a favorable ETF decision. Investor Dan Tapiero of 10T Holdings echoed this sentiment, noting that XRP has weathered regulatory storms and emerged stronger.

Market at a Turning Point

With mixed signals from derivatives markets over $5.24 million in 24-hour liquidations, the majority from long positions, traders should tread carefully in the short term. But the longer-term outlook remains promising if bullish patterns and fundamental developments play out as expected.