Pi Network Struggles to Catch Up with Crypto Market Rebound: Will a Breakout Come Soon?

While the broader crypto market continues to show signs of recovery, Pi Network (PI) is lagging, currently down around 10% over the past week. Despite growing optimism in the digital asset space, Pi’s performance has remained subdued, trading at $0.5832, a staggering 80% below its all-time high of $2.99.

But not everything points to a bearish outlook.

Volume Spikes as Traders Reengage with Pi

In the last 24 hours, trading volume for Pi Network surged by nearly 35%, crossing the $128 million mark. This uptick in activity suggests that interest is returning, possibly hinting at a larger move shortly.

However, technical indicators show the token still has plenty of work to do before confirming a bullish reversal.

Key Resistance at the 50-Day Moving Average

One of the biggest technical challenges Pi faces is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently hovering near $0.82. Pi remains below this critical level, alongside other short-term MAs such as the 10-day and 20-day, which are still flashing bearish signals.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 38.7, inching closer to the oversold territory. While not yet in oversold conditions, it indicates mounting pressure and potential for a reversal if buyers begin stepping in.

Bollinger Bands Suggest Oversold Conditions

According to Bollinger Bands, PI is currently hugging the lower band, a technical signal often associated with lower volatility and potential price rebounds. If a bounce occurs from here, traders could see a move back toward the middle band around $0.75, or even higher if momentum picks up.

A decisive breakout above the 50-day SMA, especially if supported by strong volume, could propel Pi toward $0.85–$0.90. A rally above $1.00 would likely flip market sentiment in favor of the bulls, particularly if backed by a major announcement or exchange listing.

On the flip side, if the token fails to reclaim key moving averages, selling pressure could intensify. In that case, Pi might retest support levels around $0.55 or even dip as low as $0.45, dangerously close to its historical low.

Token Dilution: A Growing Concern

A looming challenge for Pi Network is token dilution. In April alone, over 21.4 million PI tokens were unlocked, with a total value of around $12.3 million. What’s more concerning is that approximately 131 million new tokens are expected to be unlocked every month over the next year.

This steady increase in circulating supply could weigh heavily on the price unless matched by rising demand or decisive action from the project’s leadership.

Token Burn Could Help Stabilize Price

One possible solution would be a token burn. The Pi Foundation currently holds over 70 billion PI tokens, valued at more than $40 billion. Burning a portion of these tokens could help ease inflation fears, support price stability, and reassure investors.

Another strategy might include introducing fee-burning mechanisms, similar to models used by other major blockchain projects. Major Exchange Listing Could Be a Game-Changer

Another potential catalyst lies in listing Pi on top-tier exchanges like Binance or Coinbase. The community has been increasingly vocal about the benefits of such a move, and speculation continues to build.

A major listing would likely drive increased demand, wider adoption, and higher liquidity, offering a much-needed tailwind for Pi’s price.

What’s Next for Pi Network?

As the Pi Network community looks for signs of a turnaround, the 50-day moving average remains the key technical milestone. If PI can flip that resistance into solid support, it may mark the beginning of a sustainable recovery.

Until then, investors will be watching volume spikes, potential news announcements, and broader market trends to gauge whether Pi Network can finally align with the ongoing crypto comeback.