ARK Invest Predicts Bitcoin Could Soar to $1.5M–$2.4M by 2030 Amid Surging Institutional and Global Adoption
In its latest Big Ideas 2025 report, ARK Invest lays out a bold vision for Bitcoin’s future, predicting the top cryptocurrency could reach $1.5 million per coin by the end of the decade, with an even more aggressive scenario placing Bitcoin’s price at $2.4 million.
The report outlines three potential outcomes:
- Bear case: $300,000
- Base case: $710,000
- Bull case: $1.5M–$2.4M
Currently trading near $94,000, ARK’s bullish outlook would require Bitcoin to surge more than 15x from its current price a projection supported by growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s use as a store of value, and its increasing role in both emerging markets and on-chain finance.
Institutions May Allocate 6.5% to Bitcoin in Bull Case, Says ARK
One of the most significant drivers of ARK’s prediction is institutional investment. In its bullish scenario, ARK expects major financial institutions to dedicate up to 6.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, with the base case expecting a 2.5% allocation. This shift alone could unlock massive demand and solidify Bitcoin’s place as a core asset class alongside traditional investments.
Bitcoin Could Capture 60% of Gold’s Market Cap
ARK also envisions Bitcoin overtaking gold in terms of market dominance. By 2030, Bitcoin could absorb up to 60% of gold’s total market capitalization, aligning with the long-standing “digital gold” narrative. As more investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, ARK believes this transition could reshape global finance.
Emerging Markets Could Drive the Next Wave of Bitcoin Adoption
Another major component of ARK’s thesis is Bitcoin’s potential to thrive in emerging economies. As inflation, currency devaluation, and lack of banking infrastructure continue to impact developing nations, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a reliable alternative to fiat currencies.
According to ARK’s projections:
- Bitcoin could capture 6% of the monetary base in emerging markets
- Corporations could allocate up to 10% of their reserves to Bitcoin
- Governments and central banks might hold as much as 7%
This expanding use case adds another layer to Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, not just as a speculative asset, but as a financial lifeline in unstable economic environments.
On-Chain Finance and Bitcoin’s Expanding Utility
Beyond being a store of value, ARK highlights Bitcoin’s growing utility in decentralized finance (DeFi). Through innovations like Layer 2 scaling, restaking protocols, and tokenized assets, Bitcoin is becoming more versatile.
ARK predicts these developments will fuel a 60% annual growth rate in on-chain financial services, a sector that could dramatically expand Bitcoin’s real-world use and increase its overall demand.
Scarcity Could Push Bitcoin to $2.4 Million
In a refined model that adjusts for lost or inaccessible Bitcoin (which could represent over 20% of the total supply), ARK’s bull case tops out at a staggering $2.4 million per BTC. This forecast accounts for Bitcoin’s finite supply, paired with surging demand from institutions, governments, and individuals seeking an alternative to fiat-based systems.
Bitcoin's Future: Not Guaranteed, But Promising
While ARK stops short of claiming Bitcoin’s price trajectory is certain, the firm emphasizes its role as a foundational asset in the emerging digital monetary system. With institutional backing growing, interest from developing nations increasing, and blockchain-based finance rapidly evolving, Bitcoin appears poised for massive long-term growth, especially if the global economic climate continues to shift.
